The Most Important Century

 

Will the future of humanity be wild, or boring? It’s natural to think that if we’re trying to be sober and measured, and predict what will really happen rather than spin an exciting story, it’s more likely than not to be sort of… dull. But according to Holden Karnofsky, founder of charity evaluator GiveWell and foundation Open Philanthropy, the idea that there’s a boring future that’s internally coherent is an illusion that comes from not inspecting those scenarios too closely. In his new article series, “The Most Important Century,” Karnofsky argues that all possible views about humanity’s future are wild.

For the first 99% of human history, the global economy (initially mostly food production) grew very slowly: under 0.1% a year. But since the Industrial Revolution around 1800, growth has exploded to over 2% a year. To us in 2020, that sounds perfectly sensible and the natural order of things. But Holden points out that in fact it’s not only unprecedented, it also can’t continue for long. The power of compounding increases means that to sustain 2% growth for just 10,000 years — 5% as long as humanity has already existed — would require us to turn every individual atom in the galaxy into an economy as large as the Earth’s today. Not super likely.

So, what are the options? First, maybe growth will slow and then stop. In that case, we live today in the single minuscule slice in the history of life during which the world rapidly changed due to constant technological advances, before intelligent civilization permanently stagnated or even collapsed. Alternatively, maybe growth will continue for thousands of years. In that case, we are at the very beginning of what would necessarily have to become a stable galaxy-spanning civilization, harnessing the energy of entire stars among other feats of engineering.

All of these technologies offer the potential for huge upsides and huge downsides. Holden is at pains to say we should neither rejoice nor despair at the circumstance we find ourselves in. His feeling is an “odd mix of intensity, urgency, confusion and hesitance.” Going forward, these issues require sober forethought about how we want the future to play out, and how we might as a species be able to steer things in that direction.

In practical terms, this implies that our actions might have huge stakes, making it even more important to reflect on where to focus. Karnofsky suggests that AI alignment research, global priorities research, and making it more likely that governments can make thoughtful, values-driven decisions are some specific priorities that seem helpful.

In the end, the future of humanity is not just up to chance, but also to the choices that we make. It’s important to consider the potential impact of our actions and work towards a more thoughtful, values-driven future. While the future may seem unpredictable and wild, it’s up to us to steer it in the right direction.